The authors of this research, who combined new experimental data in an innovative modeling framework to examine how temperature could affect transmission risks in different environments in Africa, analyzed the link that may exist between global warming and outbreaks of malaria.
The researchers explain that they based themselves on a model derived from experimental data to show how infection by Plasmodium falciparum, the African vector of malaria (Anopheles Gambiae), is subject to temperature, and the influences it can have on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence.
The study was carried out at four sites in Kenya, East Africa. “We used models to integrate our new data and explore the impact of predicted climate change on transmission at four sites in Kenya. But it is important to recognize that, depending on the country, local strains of mosquitoes and parasites may respond differently to temperature. Transmission in individual countries or locations may also be dominated by different mosquito species,” said Thomas, co-author of the study.
He notes that it is important to study the right species, or even the right strains, and to be careful when extrapolating data from one context to a completely different one. “We conducted laboratory studies infecting thousands of mosquitoes with human malaria parasites, holding them in a wide temperature range, and then manually dissecting hundreds of mosquitoes at different times to test whether the malaria parasites had sufficiently developed and had invaded the salivary glands.
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