How far will climate change go? The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C compared to the pre-industrial era will inevitably be exceeded in the coming years, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres admitted on Wednesday, October 22, one month before the COP30 conference in Brazil. The climate is already on average 1.4°C warmer today, according to the European Copernicus Observatory.
Limiting global warming to +1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) is the most ambitious goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement. But many climate scientists agree that this threshold will most likely be reached before the end of this decade, as humanity continues to burn ever more oil, gas, and coal.
UN
Every fraction of a degree counts
According to Antonio Guterres, the latest national plans to reduce carbon emissions are far from reaching the 1.5°C target, and exceeding it would have “devastating” consequences. The UN is currently evaluating these plans (many of which are still missing), which set a carbon reduction target for 2035 and detail the means to achieve it.
Antonio Guterres indicated that commitments covering 70% of global emissions would lead to a reduction in carbon pollution of around 10% by 2035. However, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emphasizes that emissions must fall by 60% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels, to have a good chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot.
Scientists emphasize the importance of containing global warming as much as possible, as each additional fraction of a degree brings more risks, such as heatwaves or the destruction of marine life. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would significantly limit its most catastrophic consequences, according to the IPCC.
