“We have witnessed the age of coal and the age of oil, and we are now moving at full speed towards the age of electricity.” For the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, humanity is opening a new chapter in its “energy history”. The current transition phase “will define the global energy system in the future and will be increasingly based on clean sources of electricity”, he predicts, in the introduction to the organization’s annual report on the world energy outlook, published on Wednesday, October 16.
The 2024 edition of the World Energy Outlook, a reference report for economic players, updates projections up to 2050 in terms of energy demand, production and consumption, as well as the associated greenhouse gas emissions. Because to limit the rise in temperatures to +1.5°C by 2100, in accordance with the commitments of the Paris Agreement, the energy transition must correspond to the climate ambitions displayed by the international community. What is the real situation, less than a month before the opening of COP29 on climate in Azerbaijan (from 11 to 22 November)?
Fossil fuel consumption is still increasing
Given the critical role that the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) plays in the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change, the share of these fuels in the total energy supply “must decrease significantly” by 2050, according to the scientific consensus. However, in 2023, “fossil fuels met 80% of global energy demand”, compared to 83% twelve years earlier, notes the OECD organization.
COP29: The UN Conference on Climate Change
The IEA scenario, based on energy policies already in place, is based on a share of fossil fuel consumption that, admittedly, declines over the years, but would still meet 58% of global demand in 2050 (compared to the 10% needed according to the roadmap designed by the agency’s experts). When the IEA bases itself on the promises of the different countries, assuming that governments keep all their commitments in terms of greening energy, the rate of fossil fuels in the global mix remains “beyond”, at 25% by mid-century.
The erosion of the share of harmful energies does not mean that the consumption of coal, oil and gas is collapsing. The IEA points out that the explosion in demand for energy from emerging economies, such as India and China, has led to a 25% increase in consumption of carbon-based energy over ten years. However, “two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand has been met by fossil fuels”, pushing “energy-related CO2 emissions to a new record level, the report laments. “The world is still far from a trajectory aligned with its climate objectives.”
However, the IEA anticipates that current policies are leading humanity straight towards a peak in demand for fossil fuels “by the end of the decade”. In detail, this peak (which we naively imagine precedes a decline) concerns coal first. “With the rapid increase in demand for electricity in countries such as China and India, coal consumption should now decrease more gradually”, it notes. For oil and gas, experts quoted by Le Monde observe that the data in the report rather lean towards “an overall stagnation of demand” until 2050.
(Photo: Courtesy of IEA)
The transition to “all electric” remains a challenge
In its report, the IEA stresses that the expected decline in fossil fuels is accompanied by a meteoric rise in electricity needs. Electricity that, in order not to emit greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, must come from renewable or decarbonized energies. “Clean electricity is the future, and one of the striking conclusions of this report is the speed with which electricity demand will increase,” insists Fatih Birol. According to the head of the IEA, “the equivalent of the electricity consumption of the ten largest cities in the world [is added] to global demand every year.”
This consumption is driven by the electrification of fossil fuel-intensive sectors, such as industry and transport; by new demand, such as the development of artificial intelligence; and finally, by old needs increased tenfold by climate change, such as air conditioning. However, “with nuclear energy, which is the subject of renewed interest in many countries” and the rise of solar and batteries, “low-emission sources should produce more than half of the world’s electricity before 2030”, estimates the report, which notes that in absolute terms, the renewable electricity production capacity alone will increase from 4,250 GW today to nearly 10,000 GW in 2030.
