Who are the good and bad students in the fight against global warming? Where is humanity in this immense challenge? In the middle of COP 29 in Azerbaijan, a reference study was published on Wednesday, November 13. It draws one main lesson: we are emitting more and more carbon. Some 37.4 billion tons of CO2 will be emitted in 2024 by humanity, according to projections from the Global Carbon Project(New window), a consortium of a hundred scientists from around the world.
Emissions are reaching a new peak, with an increase of 0.8% compared to 2023 and still no sign of a peak. However, it must be reached very quickly, to hope to respect the Paris Agreement and permanently limit global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial era. A tenuous hope, 2024 will probably be the first year above this threshold. Emissions linked to oil, gas and coal are increasing, driven by China, India and the vast majority of countries in the world.
Some encouraging signs
The picture is not encouraging, but some signals are positive. China’s emissions are still increasing, but very little, and much less than in 2023. Renewable energies are gaining ground in the world’s leading polluter, as well as in the number 2, the United States, which has managed to reduce its pollution level. The European Union is one of the best students on the planet with a spectacular drop in emissions in 2023: minus 8%. A further drop of around 4% is expected this year. In total, 22 countries in the world have managed to reverse the trend, without giving up economic growth.
In France, emissions have been falling since the 1970s and the conversion to nuclear power, but we now need to accelerate. The government presented its ambitions at the beginning of November: many more electric cars, massive renovation of buildings, revival of nuclear power, end of coal… But the bar is high to meet the emission reduction targets set by Brussels, we will have to make almost as much effort by 2030 as everything that has been done in the last 30 years.
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