Polling experts predict the Greens have a better chance of adding a second Green MP in Bristol UK in the next general election.
According to Electoral Calculus, the Green Party has a 69% chance of winning the new Bristol Central seat, which will largely replace the existing Bristol West constituency.
The current prediction is that Carla Denyer, Green Party MP candidate for Bristol Central and co-leader of the party, is expected to receive a substantial 46.3% of the vote, which will translate to a Green majority of nearly 4,000 votes. .
So these polls exceed the forecast of a 39.4% vote share for the Labor candidate, while the Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates are expected to reach 6.4% and 3.8% respectively.
Reacting to the prediction, Denyer said: “We won’t take anything for granted, but this prediction that Bristol will have its first Green Party MP after the next general election reflects how we feel on the ground.
“We know from talking to people on the doorstep that many in Bristol Central are uninspired by Labor and are turning to the Greens because they know we stand for real action on the climate crisis and that we have the policies to create a more just and equal society.
“They also know that Green MPs will hold a future government to account.”
“With 12 of the 14 Bristol Central Constituency Councilors being Green Councillors, we also know there is a strong base of Green support here. There is a real rise in power. A large number of volunteers and supporters will continue to work hard to get us over the line – there is a growing belief that the Greens can win here.”
The Bristol West constituency will be made up of Ashley, Central, Clifton, Clifton Down, Cotham, Hotwells & Harborside and Redland wards, which currently fall under Bristol West.
Green Party candidates have come second to Debboniare in the last three elections. Denyer, who also ran in 2019, won 25% of the vote to Debbonaire’s 62% in 2019.
As a reminder, Bristol is the largest city in the southwest of England at the bottom of the estuary of the River Avon. Its population is over 400,000, making it the sixth largest city in England and the eighth largest in the United Kingdom.
It is renowned for being a rebellious, free-spirited and creative city. The diversity of its cultures (no less than 91 languages are spoken there) makes it one of the most exciting and dynamic cities in the United Kingdom.