“We are at a decisive moment; let’s not let it slip away.” Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, has repeatedly emphasized the importance of COP30. He is counting on the annual UN climate summit, held from November 10 to 21 in Belém, Brazil, to revitalize international climate negotiations. This is not an impossible mission, but a difficult one after recent disappointing editions and in a context marked by Donald Trump’s climate change denial and a decline in environmental issues in wealthy countries.
Like Germany, which is dragging its feet on phasing out internal combustion engine cars in Europe by 2035, or Norway, which has given the green light to deep-sea mining. This represents a step backward as the effects of climate change become increasingly apparent, from excess mortality linked to summer heatwaves and rising sea levels to extreme weather events.
Taking stock of the ten years since the Paris Agreement
Since COP21 in Paris in 2015, the 198 countries participating in the Conference of the Parties have been required to submit their national plans every five years to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions in order to remain compliant with the Paris Agreement. This climate roadmap, called a “Nationally Determined Contribution” (NDC), details the measures that countries intend to implement to keep global warming below 1.5°C by 2100, compared to the pre-industrial era (1850-1900).
COP30
After completing the first round in 2020, countries must submit another crucial document this year. Many scientists believe that the 1.5°C target is already unattainable. It is “on the verge of collapse,” Antonio Guterres even warned. The outlook bears him out: the proposed roadmaps, which were slow to be published, fall far short of the efforts expected to make up for lost time. Only 101 countries had actually submitted a plan by November 7, three days before the summit, according to the specialist website Climate Tracker. Among them, only those of Norway and the United Kingdom are considered compatible with the trajectory defined by the Paris Agreement.
These announcements are not a great surprise given the global trend: greenhouse gas emissions “continue to rise, reaching a record level of 55 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in 2023,” Météo-France reported in June. CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere saw a record increase in 2024, the World Meteorological Organization also warned on October 15.
While France is considered by observers to be “the guardian of the Paris Agreement,” it is also accused of dragging its feet on environmental issues by NGOs, including the Climate Action Network. France’s cautious approach during the difficult negotiations on the European climate roadmap in mid-September brought it closer to countries like Hungary, Poland, and Italy, which are hindering the environmental ambitions of the 27 member states, according to Gaïa Febvre, head of international policy at Climate Action Network France, speaking to franceinfo. This 2025 edition therefore has an “evaluation” dimension but also a strong “strategic” character, the expert summarizes.
The European Union’s plan, adopted with great difficulty less than a week before the start of the summit, ultimately proves to be “one of the most ambitious objectives on the planet,” declared Laurence Tubiana, special envoy to the COP30 presidency and former lead negotiator for France at COP21 in Paris. However, the delay and the arduous nature of the negotiations required to reach this agreement risk undermining the credibility of the 27 member states, she adds. She then qualifies this statement: “We can lament the process, but we can be pleased with the outcome.”
Accelerating the implementation of promises
The time for defining new objectives is over; now is the time to achieve those already set, Laurent Fabius, president of COP21 and architect of the Paris Agreement, told franceinfo.
